Research

Publications:

Central Bank Communication with Non-Experts - A Road to Nowhere? (Journal of Monetary Economics 2022, together with Michael Ehrmann)

ECB Working Paper, CEPR Discussion Paper, VoxEU, SUERF Policy Brief, Faculti video,  CEPR CBC RPN Seminar "Twitter and CBC"; mentioned in articles by Bloomberg and The Economist, and in a speech by Christine Lagarde

Abstract:  Central banks have intensified their communication with non-experts – an endeavour which some argue will fail. This paper studies English and German tweets about the ECB to show that its communication is received by non-experts, i.e. is not a road to nowhere. Following ECB communications, tweets often primarily relay information, become more factual and the views expressed more moderate and homogeneous. Some communications, such as Mario Draghi's “Whatever it takes”, trigger a divergence in views. Also, tweets with negative, stronger or more subjective views are more likely retweeted, liked or replied to. Thus, Twitter also constitutes a platform for controversial discussions.

Working Papers and Work-In-Progress:

New Technologies and Jobs in Europe  (2023, together with Stefania Albanesi, António Dias da Silva, Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Lamo)

NBER Working Paper, ECB Working Paper, CEPR Discussion Paper, IZA Discussion Paper, VoxEU; mentioned in an article by WIRED

Abstract:  We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011- 2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level in Europe, we find that on average employment shares have increased in occupations more exposed to AI. This is particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers. This evidence is in line with the Skill Biased Technological Change theory. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, only very few countries show a decline in employment shares of occupations more exposed to AI-enabled automation. Country heterogeneity for this result seems to be linked to the pace of technology diffusion and education, but also to the level of product market regulation (competition) and employment protection laws. In contrast to the findings for employment, we find little evidence for a relationship between wages and potential exposures to new technologies.

The Messenger Matters  (Draft available upon request)

Funded by 2022 Dissertation Fellowship by the Austrian Economic Association, University of Oxford and St. Catherine's College

Abstract: Central banks seek to optimise their communication to effectively deliver their message and ultimately influence inflation expectations. While the literature on central bank communication acknowledges that successfully reaching the general public is a challenge, there has been little focus on how the messenger of such communication might affect this. In this paper, I design an experiment to provide causal evidence of expectations aligning more with a signal when the messenger matches nationality with the recipient. Adding institutional context to messengers diminishes this nationality-based "ingroup effect", while suggesting that differences in belief updating are due to homophily rather than heterophobia. Besides updating stronger towards the signal when matching a messenger's nationality, agents are also more exposed to news by ingroup policymakers, increasing the likelihood of receiving any signal. As a result, beliefs of real-world ingroup agents - as measured on Twitter between 2016 and 2022 - update more closely to the signal of the ECB's press conference, irrespective of agents' expertise.

Banks, Bonds and Tax Avoidance  (together with Tobias Cagala; Draft available upon request)

Abstract: This paper identifies a novel profit shifting channel in the banking sector and provides evidence on the efficacy of expanded controlled-foreign-corporation (CFC) rules in countering tax avoidance. By assessing detailed micro-data on multinational banking groups’ securities portfolios we find that banks lower tax burdens by offering capital to low-tax country banks within the same group at below market rates. This channel doesn’t stem from non-European tax havens but rather exploits varying corporate tax rates within the EU. We further find that  when CFC rules apply, banking groups abstain from providing bonds below market rates, suggesting that CFC rules are indeed effective at mitigating tax avoidance - at least through this channel.

Linking Expectations and Decisions (together with Michael McMahon  and Ryan Rholes)

Funded by BA/Leverhulme Grant 2023

Inattention to Financial Information: The Role of Income (together with Tanja Linta and Manuel Mosquera-Tarrio)

Funded by BA/Leverhulme Grant 2022 & Joachim Herz Award 2022