News:

• I will be on the Job Market this fall (2024/25)

• Grateful to the Money Macro and Finance Society (MMF) for selecting my job market paper "The Messenger Matters" to win the Peter Sinclair Prize 2024 (1st Place) 

• Our paper "New Technologies and Jobs in Europe" will be part of the Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work session at the 2025 ASSA Annual Meeting, slated for  publication in the AEA Papers and Proceedings (May 2025)

The Messenger Matters  (Paper)

Funded by the 2022 Dissertation Fellowship by the Austrian Economic Association, University of Oxford and St. Catherine's College

Winner of Peter Sinclair Prize 2024 (1st Place) by The Money Macro and Finance Society 

Abstract: Does the messenger matter in communication with the public? For policy communication on monetary, climate, fiscal, or other issues to be impactful, it must successfully reach people and influence their beliefs. I combine novel empirical evidence and theoretical methods to study how messenger characteristics, particularly nationality, influence central bank communication in the Euro area. First, I construct a multilingual dataset of over 8 million tweets, and document three novel stylized facts for ingroup audiences: higher reporting on policymakers, greater information availability, and stronger belief updating. Second, I design an inflation forecasting experiment, identifying causal evidence that ingroup messengers significantly increase the use of information. Third, I incorporate these effects into a stylized coordination model and demonstrate that delegating communication to multiple heterogeneous messengers maximizes welfare when public information quality is high, while centralizing communication is preferable when it is low. These findings identify the strategic selection of messengers as a powerful and novel policy tool, complementing traditional disclosure policies.

Presented at:
2024: CEBRA Annual Meeting, EEA-ESEM, EABCN: New Challenges in Monetary Economics at the University of Mannheim, Esade Workshop in Behavioral and Experimental Economics, European Association of Young Economists (EAYE) Conference (Paris School of Economics), Annual MMF PhD Conference (University of Surrey), CEPR Central Bank Communication RPN Seminar Series, London School of Economics (Behavioural Finance Group), Oxford-CEPR Central Bank Communication Workshop, University of Oxford (Macroeconomics Workshop)
2023: Austrian Economic Association (NOeG) Winter Workshop, University of Oxford (Behavioural Lab), the Annual Meeting of the NOeG, Sverige's Riksbank, Conference on Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models (TU Vienna)

Publications:

Central Bank Communication with Non-Experts - A Road to Nowhere? (Journal of Monetary Economics 2022, together with Michael Ehrmann)

ECB Working Paper, CEPR Discussion Paper, VoxEU, SUERF Policy Brief, Faculti video,  CEPR CBC RPN Seminar "Twitter and CBC"; mentioned in articles by Bloomberg and The Economist, and in a speech by Christine Lagarde

Abstract:  Central banks have intensified their communication with non-experts – an endeavour which some argue will fail. This paper studies English and German tweets about the ECB to show that its communication is received by non-experts, i.e. is not a road to nowhere. Following ECB communications, tweets often primarily relay information, become more factual and the views expressed more moderate and homogeneous. Some communications, such as Mario Draghi's “Whatever it takes”, trigger a divergence in views. Also, tweets with negative, stronger or more subjective views are more likely retweeted, liked or replied to. Thus, Twitter also constitutes a platform for controversial discussions.

New Technologies and Jobs in Europe  (Economic Policy 2024, together with Stefania Albanesi, António Dias da Silva, Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Lamo)

Latest Working Paper (2024), NBER Working Paper (2023), ECB Working Paper (2023), VoxEU, ECB Research Bulletin; mentioned in an article by WIRED, The Wall Street Journal,  Reuters, and the Annual Report 2023 of the Bank of Spain

Abstract:  We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011- 2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level in Europe, we find that on average employment shares have increased in occupations more exposed to AI. This is particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers. This evidence is in line with the Skill Biased Technological Change theory. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, only very few countries show a decline in employment shares of occupations more exposed to AI-enabled automation. Country heterogeneity for this result seems to be linked to the pace of technology diffusion and education, but also to the level of product market regulation (competition) and employment protection laws. In contrast to the findings for employment, we find little evidence for a relationship between wages and potential exposures to new technologies.

Working Papers and Work-In-Progress:

Banks, Bonds and Tax Avoidance  (together with Tobias Cagala; Draft available upon request)

Reject and Resubmit, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

Abstract: This paper identifies a novel profit shifting channel in the banking sector and provides evidence on the efficacy of expanded controlled-foreign-corporation (CFC) rules in countering tax avoidance. By assessing detailed micro-data on multinational banking groups’ securities portfolios we find that banks lower tax burdens by offering capital to low-tax country banks within the same group at below market rates. This channel doesn’t stem from non-European tax havens but rather exploits varying corporate tax rates within the EU. We further find that  when CFC rules apply, banking groups abstain from providing bonds below market rates, suggesting that CFC rules are indeed effective at mitigating tax avoidance - at least through this channel.

Incentivizing Inflation Expectations  (together with Sergii Drobot, Daniela Puzzello and Ryan Rholes; Paper)

Abstract: Inflation expectations are crucial for economic modeling and policymaking. Despite evidence supporting the use of marginal incentives for eliciting accurate beliefs, all major surveys of macroeconomic beliefs pay a flat participation fee. This lack of marginal incentives extends to many information provision experiments - often designed as randomized controlled trials (RCTs). In a large-scale online study, we introduce marginal incentives into a standard survey of inflation expectations. Marginal incentives significantly alter expectation distributions, reducing mean forecasts, cross-sectional disagreement, and closing the gender-expectations gap. Further, in an embedded RCT, marginal incentives lead to greater responsiveness to information provision, contrasting with null effects under flat fees. These findings underscore the importance of marginal incentives in surveys and survey-based experiments to enhance data validity, strengthen empirical research, and better inform policymaking.

Inattention to Financial Information: The Role of Income (together with Tanja Linta and Manuel Mosquera-Tarrio)

Secured competitive, merit-based funding: British Academy/Leverhulme Grant 2022
Winner of the Joachim Herz Award 2022

Abstract: This paper aims to understand how individuals make lifecycle consumption and saving choices when facing stochastic returns on their investment and how they value information about the heterogeneous returns, conditional on their income. To address this question, we implement a permanent income model with stochastic interest rates in a controlled laboratory environment that allows for control over confounding factors such as cognitive abilities, financial literacy, risk attitudes and initial wealth. Preliminary results suggest that (i) information improves outcomes for all agents regardless of income, and (ii) if the information is costly, high-income agents have a relatively higher valuation. The latter extends to confirming the theory of Arrow (1987) where the availability of information contributes to higher inequality. An important application of the problem is related to central bank communication: although central banks have been reducing the complexity of their communication to reach a wider audience, it is not clear whether all agents are able to use the information and benefit equally.

Linking Expectations and Decisions (together with Michael McMahon  and Ryan Rholes)

Secured competitive, merit-based funding: British Academy/Leverhulme Grant 2023

Abstract: The concept of the Euler equation is fundamental to understanding and modeling intertemporal choice, investment, and consumption-savings decisions, but also asset pricing, policy analysis, and DSGE models. A rapidly growing empirical literature is contradictory about the relationship between inflation expectations and consumption. This poses critical questions: Do consumption decisions react causally to inflation expectations? And if they do, what are the mechanisms, conditions, and reasons behind this response? This paper aims to answer these questions through controlled, large-scale experiments. We will focus on how consumption responds to changes in expected inflation, changes in inflation uncertainty, and changes in both simultaneously that either reinforce or offset each other. Further, we show how these relationships are impacted by the durability of the consumption good, whether agents must borrow or save to consume, and whether changes in expected inflation lead to changes in the real interest rate or the nominal interest rate.